Mark’s 2012 PredictionsJanuary 25, 2012
- Eagles and Dockers – I think that the Dockers will have a better season than last year, however, we will not see them at their best until the 2013 season. It will take at least one season for Ross Lyon to mould the footy club to his ways. They should finish 6th. The Eagles are on a hiding to nothing, most punters are expecting them to have a good season on the back of ‘overachieving’ in last year. I feel that they will have a strong season and will finish top 3.
- Interest Rates – with global markets on knives edge, our Australian economy still remains stronger that most countries. However, our economy is vulnerable to the issues of the overseas markets that are out of our control. I envisage that the RBA will take a conservative view point over the next 9-12 months and I see interest rates cut by 75 basis points.
- GDP Growth – my prediction is that over the 2012 calendar year GDP will increase by a little under 3%, in fact I’m suggesting 2.79%. As we know Australia’s economy is dominated by its services sector, however, our economic success is based on the profusion of the agricultural and mineral resources. Trading in a small domestic market, Australia’s comparative advantage is in the export of primary products and this is a reflection of the natural wealth of the Australian continent. I see no reason as to why this should be restricted in the next two quarters gaining more momentum in the forth quarter to sustain a growth of around 3%
- US Election – this is a hot topic, but does it really affect the way we do business in Australia if the Democrats win? We will have to wait until November to find out…but my selection is that this time next year President Barack Obama will be on his long service leave, well his four year service leave. We will have a new leader of the US and it looks like Republican Senator Newt Gingrich will have a new home for the next four years.
- Australia goes to the poles – No not in 2012 but could be as early as May 2013. It appears, a double dissolution in the current term is extremely unlikely. Only a bill opposed by both the Coalition and the Greens in both Houses could be defeated in the Senate. The current make-up of the House suggests it is more likely that legislation will be amended or defeated in the House rather than the Senate and therefore making a DD almost improbable.
- Australian Test Cricket Rankings – With the recent resurgence of the Australian Test Cricket Team it could be easy to be swept away with all the enthusiasm that a winning team brings. Looking ahead to the rest of the 2012 Test schedule, there really isn’t enough matches for Australia to play this year to regain the No.1 World Rankings. My prediction is that we are more likely to jump from 4th to 3rd behind India and England.
- Corporate Insolvencies – 2011 was the worst year on record for corporate insolvencies. ASIC recently released statistics for insolvencies for November 2011 and they reveal that the 11 months to November 2011 was already higher than the previous highest 12 months results for a calendar year. The 11 months to November recorded 9,718 corporate insolvencies which already exceeded the previous high of 9,601 being for calendar year 2010. I see no real reason for this trend to decline. In fact it will get worse, much worse before we start to see the worm turn upwards.
- Gold Price – gold prices will continue its roller coaster ride of 2011. It is all related to the $A, and as I base my predictions on a somewhat moderate $A vs the Greenback, the price of Gold will remain in the range of $1730-$1755 per oz. let see how close I am!!!
- Unemployment Rate – its official- its hard to run a successful business in Australia! Over the next 12 months we will see unemployment rise by up to 0.65 to 5.85%.The Carbon Tax and low business confidence that companies are facing will bear pressure on the amount of Australians out of work. The section to watch is unemployed females, which currently sits at 5.5%
- Tiger Woods World Rankings – as at December 2011, Tiger Woods World Ranking was 25th overall. If he can stay injury free, he will have a better year in 2012 but will still be looking into the top 10 from around position 13. Tiger still needs another 16-18 months to regain a top 10 placing and watch out when he does it will be magic!!!
- Olympics – with only 184 more days to go, the London Olympics look set to be the best games ever!!! It will be a tightly contested games with China taking the honours. Australia will do better than in Beijing in 2008 and should finish one better – in 5th place. C’mon Auzzies!!!
Well there you have it. My 2012 predictions.
I hope that you have a great year and it’s filled with as much joy and laughter as you can fit in!!!
Please drop me an email if you agree with some or all of my comments above as I would love to hear your thoughts.
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